Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260108 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 91.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.7 47.3 42.2 38.9 34.1 39.1 44.2 37.2 VU VU VU U U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.1 77.7 77.7 84.4 86.2 81.0 79.3 82.7 U N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -3.0 26.0 35.0 49.0 64.0 59.0 80.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 41.0 38.0 42.0 54.0 62.0 64.0 61.0 VU VU VU VU U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 5.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 SH122026 260108 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 91.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.