Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260108 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 90.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 49.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.6 42.4 37.5 34.2 33.4 43.8 37.1 42.9 VU VU U U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.7 84.4 86.2 86.2 88.0 86.2 81.0 89.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 25.0 34.0 70.0 31.0 60.0 76.0 63.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 37.0 42.0 48.0 58.0 63.0 64.0 60.0 VU VU VU U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -10.0 -1.0 15.0 N N F F N F N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.56 SH122026 260108 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.20 90.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.