Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260108 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 89.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.6 36.5 36.4 37.3 42.6 37.2 29.2 28.5 U U U U VU U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 91.2 91.2 93.0 91.2 91.2 86.0 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 19.0 11.0 -2.0 52.0 91.0 88.0 89.0 U U U U N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 45.0 48.0 51.0 58.0 57.0 53.0 52.0 VU VU U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -13.0 -5.0 -5.0 5.0 N N N F VF F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 SH122026 260108 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.90 89.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.