Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260108 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 88.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.5 37.8 32.5 31.5 41.8 43.5 41.1 42.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.2 96.2 98.0 98.0 91.0 91.0 94.4 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 36.0 31.0 13.0 35.0 48.0 60.0 19.0 U N N U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 49.0 55.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 54.0 57.0 VU U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -2.0 -3.0 -0.0 F F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 SH122026 260108 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 88.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.