Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  41.8  41.4  42.3  45.2  41.3  36.1  33.5  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.0 101.0 101.0  94.6  96.1  99.3 104.4 102.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  21.0  18.0  29.0  29.0  34.0  52.0  84.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  67.0  73.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -11.0 -14.0 -10.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0  -0.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 SH122026 260109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.70     85.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.