Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260110 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.00 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 39.0 43.2 41.3 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.0 101.0 94.6 94.6 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 2.0 13.0 22.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -11.0 -16.0 -8.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 F F VF F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.42 SH122026 260110 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.00 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.