Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260110 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  46.5  53.8  56.0  52.7  50.7  50.7  53.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  94.6  90.0  90.0  84.4  79.2  79.2  80.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  11.0   9.0  15.0  21.0  27.0  24.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -16.0 -17.0 -17.0 -10.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.06

 SH122026 260110 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     84.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.