Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  42.4  50.9  52.2  63.7  62.6  62.3  63.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.1  96.1  90.0  90.0  85.8  85.8  81.7  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  36.0  35.0  31.0  36.0  56.0  40.0  45.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -8.0  -8.0  -9.0 -14.0  -9.0  -7.0   3.0 VF  F  F  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.10

 SH122026 260110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     82.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.