Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260110 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.0 43.3 53.4 57.8 57.9 64.8 59.8 62.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.6 95.0 95.0 95.0 92.2 92.2 92.2 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 -4.0 7.0 14.0 37.0 46.0 34.0 40.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 51.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 60.0 64.0 67.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -9.0 -8.0 -9.0 -6.0 1.0 -2.0 3.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 SH122026 260110 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.00 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.