Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     80.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  43.1  48.7  55.0  67.4  69.5  67.5  71.4  N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.7 102.7  96.5  98.0  93.6  95.0  95.0  92.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  20.0  23.0  39.0  53.0  36.0  34.0  15.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  64.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -6.0  -9.0  -8.0   5.0   9.0  10.0  15.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 SH122026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     80.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.