Rapid Intensification Guidance SH122026 260111 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 79.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.2 38.1 41.5 52.0 67.7 61.9 68.8 67.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.7 102.7 104.3 104.3 99.6 101.1 101.1 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 17.0 30.0 48.0 42.0 30.0 34.0 24.0 U U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 66.0 61.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -2.0 -0.0 7.0 11.0 17.0 15.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.34 SH122026 260111 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 79.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.