Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH122026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.3  55.7  68.9  76.1  64.1  64.0  68.7  73.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  93.6  95.0  92.2  98.0  99.6  99.6  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  31.0  35.0  35.0   8.0  18.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -0.0   1.0   7.0   8.0  16.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 SH122026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.