Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  14.1  14.2  18.9  21.3  21.1  24.1  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  16.0  10.0  50.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  36.0  51.0  45.0  31.0  14.0   3.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.0%       15.3%       13.7%
 25kt / 24h       31.4%       56.5%       44.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       48.5%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       21.8%       48.5%       35.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       48.5%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.2%       49.9%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h       13.6%       31.4%       22.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       28.2%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%       17.4%       11.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%       21.5%       12.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 SH132026 260110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.90    148.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  14.1  14.2  18.9  21.3  21.1  24.1  20.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%