Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260110 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  31.7  35.4  36.3  29.9  26.3  33.1  21.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  12.0   8.0  10.7  16.0  21.3  26.7  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 114.6 110.1 107.9 107.9 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  39.0  19.0  -4.0  14.0  27.0  28.0   6.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0   6.0   8.0  -0.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  F  F  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.7%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.4%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 SH132026 260110 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.30    147.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  31.7  35.4  36.3  29.9  26.3  33.1  21.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0   6.0   8.0  -0.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%