Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  36.9  28.3  24.8  30.0  28.0  26.5  26.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  12.0   8.0   9.0  19.0  37.0  55.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.0 122.3 122.3 117.9 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  12.0 -23.0 -37.0  -4.0  44.0  23.0  31.0  N  U VU VU  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  80.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  12.0   2.0   9.0  -3.0   3.0  -4.0  F  N  U  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 SH132026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  36.9  28.3  24.8  30.0  28.0  26.5  26.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  80.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  12.0   2.0   9.0  -3.0   3.0  -4.0  U  N  F  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%