Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  30.2  23.6  29.0  25.4  26.0  23.7  26.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.6  15.3  16.9  20.2  23.5  26.8  30.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 127.3 127.3 127.3 125.1 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -23.0 -37.0 -36.0  11.0  39.0  28.0  24.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  10.0   1.0   3.0   8.0  -0.0   3.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 SH132026 260111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.70    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.9  30.2  23.6  29.0  25.4  26.0  23.7  26.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  10.0   1.0   3.0   8.0  -0.0   3.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%