Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.8  29.4  29.9  23.7  24.9  23.4  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.5   7.1   9.6  14.7  19.8  24.8  29.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 132.3 119.4 119.4 119.4 130.1 140.0 140.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -18.0  20.0  33.0  -9.0  29.0  28.0  13.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 SH132026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.8  29.4  29.9  23.7  24.9  23.4  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  79.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%