Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132026 260111 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.30 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 13.2 20.1 16.2 20.7 23.0 28.1 24.4 F F N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 119.8 119.8 119.8 119.8 118.0 131.5 149.3 150.0 N N N N N F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 17.0 15.0 9.0 23.0 4.0 26.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 63.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 70.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 3.0 2.0 -1.0 -4.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 6.7% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 7.3% 2.6% 5.0% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 6.1% 3.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 SH132026 260111 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.30 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.