Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  21.6  18.9  25.4  24.5  25.1  24.5  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  30.4  38.8  47.2  64.0  79.0  70.0  82.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        149.3 149.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   2.0  -5.0  13.0  41.0  12.0  42.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.2%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       15.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.3%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.2%        7.1%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        5.4%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%       23.5%       23.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 SH132026 260112 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  21.6  18.9  25.4  24.5  25.1  24.5  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%