Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  24.0  23.7  24.5  20.6  25.3  34.6  36.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.1 142.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -6.0  -1.0  21.0 -10.0  11.0  -8.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  56.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.1%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 SH132026 260112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  24.0  23.7  24.5  20.6  25.3  34.6  36.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  56.0  50.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0   2.0   1.0   7.0   6.0   7.0   7.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%