Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH132026 260112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.0  23.5  18.4  19.9  16.9  12.3  14.6  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  26.0  28.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        149.3 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   3.0   6.0  17.0   8.0  33.0  -5.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  59.0  60.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  62.0  59.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.7%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.0%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        5.1%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%       26.7%       19.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 SH132026 260112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.00    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  25.0  23.5  18.4  19.9  16.9  12.3  14.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  59.0  60.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  62.0  59.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   4.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%