Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.6  19.8  19.1  18.5  15.2  22.7  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  24.0  24.0  19.0  15.0  10.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3  98.6  98.6  98.6  90.5  90.5  84.8  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  40.0  52.0  45.0  34.0  35.0  68.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        8.5%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       31.4%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       20.4%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       20.4%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       19.1%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.5%       29.1%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       14.1%       10.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.4%        8.1%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        7.4%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        6.8%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 SH142026 260111 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     76.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.6  19.8  19.1  18.5  15.2  22.7  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%