Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.7  18.4  17.4  16.3  20.1  25.5  20.9  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  19.0  14.0  14.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  93.6  93.6  85.5  85.5  79.8  79.8  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  52.0  45.0  32.0  36.0  62.0  60.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.8%       16.7%       19.2%
 25kt / 24h       27.9%       43.7%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       36.1%       27.9%
 35kt / 24h       17.1%       36.1%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       33.2%       23.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       43.2%       30.0%
 55kt / 36h       11.3%       27.1%       19.2%
 55kt / 48h       15.3%        5.8%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%       11.0%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        6.4%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH142026 260111 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.7  18.4  17.4  16.3  20.1  25.5  20.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%