Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.9  18.5  19.5  17.9  14.9  14.9  18.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  19.0  19.0  14.0  14.0  11.0  13.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  88.6  80.5  80.5  80.5  82.4  74.8  76.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  46.0  42.0  43.0  51.0  66.0  35.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.5%        9.7%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       25.6%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       18.0%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       18.0%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       17.3%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       19.4%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%        8.6%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%        5.6%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        4.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        4.8%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH142026 260111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.50     77.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.9  18.5  19.5  17.9  14.9  14.9  18.5  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%