Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.5  20.5  20.1  17.1  16.0  18.5  18.9  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  11.0   8.0   9.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.4  65.5  65.5  65.5  65.5  59.8  61.6  63.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  42.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  35.0  71.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       57.0%       21.3%       39.1%
 25kt / 24h       43.0%       32.6%       37.8%
 30kt / 24h       43.0%       30.9%       37.0%
 35kt / 24h       43.0%       30.9%       37.0%
 40kt / 24h       43.0%       30.9%       37.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.0%       19.9%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%        9.2%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        4.8%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 SH142026 260111 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.