Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260112 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 77.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 58.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 23.1 25.9 21.1 19.7 18.8 20.0 18.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 11.0 11.0 7.0 8.0 5.0 7.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.5 55.5 49.8 49.8 49.8 51.6 48.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 41.0 39.0 31.0 64.0 35.0 122.0 76.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 70.0 69.0 67.0 61.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 1.0 1.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 46.4% 16.1% 31.3% 25kt / 24h 27.1% 20.4% 23.8% 30kt / 24h 27.1% 17.2% 22.1% 35kt / 24h 27.1% 17.2% 22.1% 40kt / 24h 27.1% 14.1% 20.6% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 SH142026 260112 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.30 77.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.