Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.9  21.0  20.5  18.8  10.8  12.3  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4  42.4  34.8  34.8  36.6  38.5  38.5  38.5  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  39.0  31.0  22.0  40.0  62.0 107.0  85.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  68.0  62.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.1%       11.0%       23.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.2%       12.6%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       10.1%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 SH142026 260112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     77.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.