Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     77.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  24.0  20.7  25.6  23.6  22.5  14.8  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  13.0   8.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.4  19.8  19.8  19.8  21.6  23.5  23.5  23.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  33.0  37.0  48.0  40.0  53.0  28.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -0.0   2.0  -0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.7%        0.0%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 SH142026 260112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.80     77.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.