Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260112 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 78.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 14.9 21.5 20.1 18.3 19.9 17.2 20.8 N F N N F N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 11.0 13.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 21.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 34.0 54.0 54.0 71.0 64.0 67.0 63.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 66.0 67.0 63.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 1.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 SH142026 260112 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.00 78.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.