Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260114 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 76.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 14.6 19.2 22.2 26.6 28.6 26.8 33.4 F F N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 19.0 19.0 13.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.5 70.5 70.5 76.5 76.5 72.4 66.6 63.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 65.0 79.0 98.0 102.0 75.0 48.0 34.0 N N N F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 64.0 59.0 58.0 57.0 56.0 52.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 1.0 1.0 -0.0 -7.0 -15.0 -15.0 -12.0 N N N N F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.6% 7.2% 9.9% 25kt / 24h 13.3% 18.8% 16.0% 30kt / 24h 11.5% 13.5% 12.5% 35kt / 24h 11.5% 13.5% 12.5% 40kt / 24h 11.5% 12.5% 12.0% 45kt / 36h 8.8% 9.5% 9.1% 55kt / 36h 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 8.0% 2.4% 5.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 SH142026 260114 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 76.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.