Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260115 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 75.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.6 20.4 25.4 26.0 33.2 29.3 35.4 36.5 N N N N U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 20.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.5 61.5 61.5 61.5 57.4 51.6 48.0 41.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 55.0 70.0 55.0 77.0 45.0 94.0 38.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 65.0 62.0 67.0 64.0 69.0 61.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -7.0 -11.0 -12.0 -22.0 F N N F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 52.0% 21.9% 36.9% 25kt / 24h 32.5% 30.1% 31.3% 30kt / 24h 32.5% 27.5% 30.0% 35kt / 24h 32.5% 27.5% 30.0% 40kt / 24h 32.5% 24.2% 28.4% 45kt / 36h 21.2% 16.6% 18.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 SH142026 260115 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 75.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.