Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260115 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 74.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 25.5 26.0 28.9 30.9 30.8 37.3 39.2 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 17.0 17.0 20.0 16.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.5 51.5 51.5 45.5 47.4 36.2 32.7 32.7 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 70.0 55.0 66.0 64.0 88.0 67.0 34.0 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 56.0 51.0 40.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -4.0 -5.0 -14.0 -12.0 -16.0 -21.0 N N F F VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.3% 13.5% 27.9% 25kt / 24h 24.5% 16.0% 20.3% 30kt / 24h 24.5% 12.5% 18.5% 35kt / 24h 24.5% 12.5% 18.5% 40kt / 24h 24.5% 9.5% 17.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 SH142026 260115 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 74.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.