Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  27.6  32.0  34.6  32.9  35.1  33.3  23.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  20.0  19.0  17.0  10.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.5  36.5  30.5  30.5  26.6  21.2  17.7  14.3 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  10.0  57.0  96.0  55.0  66.0  17.0  17.0  N  U  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -8.0 -11.0 -13.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.7%        6.4%       16.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%        4.5%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 SH142026 260115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.10     73.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.