Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     70.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  38.4  34.1  37.8  35.3  30.8  25.0  20.5 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  11.0  14.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  34.4  28.5  28.5  24.8  21.2  23.0  21.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  34.0  51.0  84.0  23.0  25.0 -35.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  U  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -8.0 -12.0  -8.0  -9.0  -8.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 SH142026 260116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00     70.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.