Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     68.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  36.3  36.6  34.0  27.7  21.1  19.0  16.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  20.0  19.0  18.0  20.0  19.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  54.4  48.5  50.5  50.5  46.6  48.5  50.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  57.0  44.0   9.0  51.0 -32.0  24.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0 -12.0 -10.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 SH142026 260117 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     68.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.