Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  31.0  30.5  34.4  27.9  22.8  15.4  12.1  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  19.0  17.0  16.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  79.8  78.0  78.0  79.8  81.6  76.2  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  47.0  44.0  39.0 -16.0  12.0 -12.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  51.0  46.0  39.0  37.0  39.0  42.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -0.0  -1.0  -7.0  -0.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 SH142026 260117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.