Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  32.6  24.8  29.6  18.2  18.0  17.3  19.1  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  16.0  17.0  19.0  18.0  17.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.8  81.6  78.0  79.8  79.8  79.8  78.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  49.0  30.0  19.0  15.0   4.0 -58.0 -11.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  38.0  40.0  41.0  45.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -10.0 -11.0 -12.0   2.0  -0.0 -13.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.06

 SH142026 260117 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.50     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.