Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260118 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.90 66.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 30.8 28.6 24.2 19.1 12.9 12.9 17.2 N U N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 16.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 17.0 11.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.6 81.6 79.8 81.6 81.6 79.8 72.7 54.4 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 59.0 51.0 30.0 1.0 27.0 -1.0 -2.0 -25.0 N N N U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 50.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 44.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -0.0 -3.0 -6.0 -6.0 -1.0 -7.0 -3.0 F N N F F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.8% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 2.5% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 0.7% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 SH142026 260118 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.90 66.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.