Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  32.0  27.4  18.9  23.7  15.3  25.7  29.3  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  16.0  17.0  15.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.0  71.2  73.0  74.8  73.0  67.7  58.0  28.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  12.0 -16.0  -8.0 -11.0 -35.0   9.0  27.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  52.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -16.0 -11.0   3.0  -5.0 -15.0 -21.0  F  F VF  F  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.2%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.90

 SH142026 260118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.30     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.