Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260118 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 65.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.10 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 27.9 21.6 21.2 22.9 22.0 30.2 28.0 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 12.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.2 81.2 84.8 81.2 79.4 72.7 51.7 17.3 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 -23.0 11.0 0.0 2.0 -37.0 -6.0 60.0 U VU U U U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 40.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 43.0 48.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -12.0 -10.0 -6.0 -2.0 -17.0 -18.0 -14.0 F F F F N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.86 SH142026 260118 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.80 65.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.