Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260118 18UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 22.9 21.2 24.0 17.4 25.3 34.4 36.8 N N N N F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.0 84.8 86.6 83.0 76.0 66.5 37.8 6.6 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 11.0 0.0 -28.0 -64.0 4.0 31.0 37.0 VU U U VU VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 40.0 39.0 42.0 45.0 46.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0 -6.0 -0.0 -3.0 -22.0 -21.0 -20.0 F F F N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 SH142026 260118 18UTC Storm Located at : -21.00 64.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.