Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260119 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.10 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 19.9 20.9 19.9 22.8 32.3 29.7 44.0 N N N N N U N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 86.6 83.0 84.8 72.7 51.7 21.4 -0.1 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 7.0 -2.0 -12.0 -21.0 5.0 52.0 68.0 U U U U VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 40.0 39.0 39.0 42.0 47.0 54.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -6.0 -2.0 -6.0 -18.0 -20.0 -86.0 74.0 F F N F VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 SH142026 260119 00UTC Storm Located at : -21.10 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.