Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260119 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.00 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 21.3 23.8 22.5 27.6 34.3 66.2 76.4 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 14.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 81.2 77.7 66.5 43.8 13.7 -3.9 -10.1 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -11.0 -30.0 -23.0 40.0 42.0 69.0 54.0 U U VU VU N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 40.0 43.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 53.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -8.0 -17.0 -21.0 -40.0 49.0 95.0 52.0 N F VF VF VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 SH142026 260119 18UTC Storm Located at : -22.00 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.