Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  22.5  20.7  24.6  19.8  61.5  94.4  65.6  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.2  72.7  61.5  46.7  21.9  -3.5 -13.9 -15.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -60.0  -4.0 -23.0  55.0  30.0 130.0  27.0 VU VU  U VU  N  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  36.0  43.0  50.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -14.0  -9.0 -20.0  25.0 107.0 163.0  85.0  F VF  F VF VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.22

 SH142026 260120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.