Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260120 06UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 57.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 20.8 24.8 25.1 38.4 71.9 76.3 55.1 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.7 66.5 51.7 43.8 13.7 -3.3 -9.5 -9.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -60.0 -4.0 -23.0 -4.0 34.0 67.0 67.0 19.0 VU U VU U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 40.0 43.0 46.0 54.0 53.0 58.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -10.0 -19.0 -32.0 38.0 138.0 91.0 74.0 VF F VF VF VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.64 SH142026 260120 06UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 57.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.