Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260120 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 57.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 21.6 22.6 20.6 48.1 106.1 106.1 106.1 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.5 46.7 32.8 21.9 -3.5 -12.9 -12.9 -12.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -7.0 -6.0 46.0 48.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 U U U N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 50.0 50.0 56.0 54.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 VU U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -28.0 -0.0 20.0 59.0 184.0 184.0 184.0 VF VF N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.60 SH142026 260120 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 57.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.