Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260121 00UTC Storm Located at : -27.60 57.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 19.5 31.8 47.2 73.7 43.8 34.0 32.0 N N U VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.8 26.9 13.7 3.7 -6.7 -9.9 -9.3 -7.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 68.0 56.0 54.0 72.0 32.0 -5.0 -30.0 U N N N N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 54.0 54.0 49.0 51.0 54.0 43.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 36.0 59.0 105.0 228.0 9.0 123.0 52.0 VF VU VU VU VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.86 SH142026 260121 00UTC Storm Located at : -27.60 57.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.