Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.80 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 37.8 53.5 79.5 76.3 42.2 34.0 30.4 N U VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 16.9 3.7 -6.3 -13.0 -19.8 -19.7 -18.9 -15.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 55.0 43.0 83.0 50.0 22.0 -34.0 8.0 N N N N N U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 49.0 51.0 59.0 45.0 43.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 51.0 55.0 105.0 110.0 42.0 72.0 69.0 56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.64 SH142026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.80 58.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.