Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH142026 260121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -32.30     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  69.4  82.0  77.0  43.5  31.5  26.4  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          8.7  -1.3  -8.0 -12.8 -15.0 -14.0 -12.3  -9.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  38.0 107.0 115.0  40.0 -21.0 -62.0 -14.0  N  N  F  F  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  47.0  51.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  54.0  52.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 131.0  71.0 201.0 139.0  16.0  47.0  -9.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 16.84

 SH142026 260121 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -32.30     59.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.