Rapid Intensification Guidance SH142026 260121 18UTC Storm Located at : -35.60 62.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.1 81.7 80.9 65.6 30.5 23.6 19.0 29.8 VU VU VU VU N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] -3.5 -8.0 -12.8 -14.8 -14.7 -13.9 -11.2 -9.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 108.0 115.0 55.0 26.0 -8.0 -6.0 -19.0 N F F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 58.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 U U U N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 66.0 200.0 149.0 60.0 41.0 16.0 42.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.50 SH142026 260121 18UTC Storm Located at : -35.60 62.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.